Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
