Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
